During their recent fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong addressed inquiries regarding the company's potential venture into establishing its own prediction market platform. Armstrong emphasized that while Coinbase maintains an active partnership with existing platforms, the company is not bound by an exclusive agreement. He stated that Coinbase reserves the right to introduce its own markets, indicating a strategic openness to future expansion in this domain, despite having no immediate announcements.
The discussion around prediction markets gained particular relevance following a notable increase in activity coinciding with Super Bowl LX. Last month, Coinbase extended its prediction market offerings across all 50 states, strategically timing this expansion with the major sporting event. This move capitalized on the heightened public interest and engagement during the Super Bowl period.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, a partner in the prediction market space, reported a staggering 2,700% year-over-year increase in trading volume during Super Bowl LX, with over one billion dollars wagered on the game. Armstrong acknowledged the early but promising interest, noting that the Super Bowl weekend provided a significant opportunity for many new customers to engage with prediction markets for the first time. However, Coinbase's own karaoke-themed advertisement aired during Super Bowl LX failed to connect with the audience, receiving low ratings in post-event analyses.
Financially, Coinbase's fourth-quarter revenue reached $1.78 billion, falling short of analyst projections, though its earnings per share of $0.66 surpassed expectations. For the entire fiscal year, the company's total revenue stood at $7.2 billion, marking a 9% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, Coinbase experienced a brief service interruption that prevented users from executing trades, an issue which the Coinbase Support team subsequently confirmed was resolved. Following these developments, Coinbase shares saw a modest rise of 0.87% in after-hours trading, despite a 7.90% decline during regular trading hours, closing at $141.09. The stock currently exhibits a weaker price trajectory across short, medium, and long terms, with an average ranking in terms of value.
Coinbase is actively exploring opportunities within the prediction market sector, demonstrating a flexible approach to its business model. While external collaborations have shown immense success, particularly during high-profile events like the Super Bowl, the company is poised to potentially develop its own independent platforms. This strategic foresight, combined with ongoing financial performance and adaptive responses to operational challenges, positions Coinbase to navigate the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency and prediction markets.