The foreign exchange market witnessed significant movements across major currency pairs last week. The EURUSD surged beyond a critical retracement area, indicating bullish tendencies. Meanwhile, the USDJPY oscillated within a defined range, while the GBPUSD experienced a notable upward push. The USDCHF saw fluctuating momentum around key moving averages, and the USDCAD remained trapped in a wide trading band with bearish undertones. Additionally, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD both breached important resistance levels, signaling potential shifts in market sentiment. These developments set the stage for an intriguing start to the new trading week.
In the EURUSD pair, traders observed a decisive move above a crucial retracement zone, which lies between 1.0448 and 1.0461. This area is pivotal as it represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the December high. The breakthrough suggests that bullish forces are gaining traction. Analysts believe this movement could serve as a barometer for the upcoming trading week, potentially setting the tone for further gains. Market participants will closely monitor how this level holds up against selling pressure.
The USDJPY has been navigating within a tight range over the past week and a half, bounded by 154.77 and 156.73. Notably, the price briefly dipped below the 38.2% retracement at 154.939 but quickly rebounded, indicating limited downside momentum. Traders are watching this lower boundary closely, as any sustained break could signal a shift in trend. For now, the pair remains balanced, with neither buyers nor sellers gaining a clear advantage.
The GBPUSD was the standout performer on Friday, breaking through two significant retracement levels. It surpassed the 38.2% and 50% retracement points of the downtrend from the December peak, reaching 1.23689 and 1.2453, respectively. This surge reflects renewed optimism among investors, possibly driven by positive economic data or geopolitical factors. Analysts suggest that if this upward momentum continues, it could lead to further appreciation of the pound against the dollar.
The USDCHF exhibited mixed signals throughout the week. On Tuesday, it tested but did not breach the 100-hour moving average (MA), only to extend above it later before stalling at the higher 200-hour MA. By Thursday, it had retreated, testing the 100-hour MA again without success. Despite these fluctuations, the pair did not fall below the 38.2% retracement of its December low-to-high move. This back-and-forth action indicates a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, leaving the direction uncertain.
The USDCAD has been stuck in a wide trading range since mid-December, oscillating between 1.42899 and 1.4466. Last week, attempts to break out either higher or lower failed, leading to a consolidation within the range. The current price is below both the 100-hour and 200-hour MAs, imparting a slight bearish bias heading into the weekend. Traders will be keen to see if this pattern persists or if a breakout occurs in the coming days.
Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD made notable moves above their respective ceiling areas and retracement levels. The AUDUSD broke through the 38.2% retracement of its November high, settling between 0.62874 and 0.6306. Similarly, the NZDUSD surpassed the 38.2% retracement from late November, ranging between 0.5683 and 0.5691. These breaks indicate that buyers are stepping in, potentially setting the stage for continued upward momentum in the new trading week. However, sustaining this trend will require consistent buying interest.
As the new trading week approaches, market participants will be closely watching these key levels and trends. The EURUSD's breakthrough and the GBPUSD's strong performance suggest bullish momentum, while the USDJPY and USDCAD remain within defined ranges. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD's recent advances add to the complexity of the forex landscape. Traders will need to stay vigilant, as any shift in market sentiment could lead to significant movements in these currency pairs.