In addition to the inflation situation in Poland this morning, detailed GDP figures for 3Q in Turkey have already been made public. Just like in the Czech Republic, we will witness a similar release. Yesterday's numbers in Poland indicated weak household consumption. However, the main attention should be directed towards Hungary, where the Prime Minister decided that the current Finance Minister Mihaly Varga will take on the role of the Governor of the National Bank of Hungary starting from March next year. Although his name was widely anticipated, there has been a surge in uncertainty surrounding this appointment in recent days. We assume that the appointment of a finance minister has already been factored in. But the alternatives mentioned by journalists were likely to be regarded by the market as more dovish choices. Consequently, Hungary's forint may receive some support this morning.
Implications for EUR/HUF
Yesterday, EUR/HUF briefly reached a new local high of 415, but it later gave back those gains and closed unchanged. As we previously discussed here, we believe that EUR/HUF has fully accounted for the shift in EUR/USD and the global environment after the US election, and Central and Eastern European (CEE) peers are relatively lagging behind. Therefore, we do not foresee a significant change in EUR/HUF levels at present. On the other hand, from our perspective, the positioning is currently heavily short HUF. Any hint from the government or the central bank could potentially signal to the market to take some profits and enable the HUF to rally. However, in the medium term, we anticipate that EUR/HUF will continue to move upwards and reach 420 in 1Q25.Poland's Inflation and Its Impact
Poland's inflation this morning is a significant economic indicator. It reflects the current economic conditions and has implications for various sectors. Weak household consumption, as indicated by yesterday's data, can have a cascading effect on the overall economy. This might lead to adjustments in consumer behavior and business strategies. Analysts are closely monitoring these developments to understand the potential long-term consequences.Turkey's GDP Figures and Their Significance
The detailed GDP figures for 3Q in Turkey hold great importance. They provide insights into the country's economic performance during this period. A thorough analysis of these figures can help in identifying trends and patterns. It also allows for comparisons with other economies and helps in formulating appropriate economic policies. These figures can have a ripple effect on various markets and industries, influencing investment decisions and economic growth.Hungary's Appointments and Their Market Repercussions
The appointment of Mihaly Varga as the Governor of the National Bank of Hungary from March next year is a major event. It has sparked uncertainty in the market, as alternative options were also mentioned by journalists. The market's reaction to such appointments is crucial as it can impact currency values and market sentiment. The potential for more dovish options being considered by the market adds an extra layer of complexity. This appointment will likely shape Hungary's economic policies and monetary stance in the coming years. READ MORE